XAU/USD Daily Edge Report – December 24, 2025
📊 Pair: XAU/USD (Gold) 📅 Date: December 24, 2025
Current Price and Trend Snapshot 📈
- Current Level: ~$4,480–$4,500 (hovering near all-time highs around $4,488–$4,495)
- Recent Move: Mild consolidation after surging to fresh records (+0.1–0.5% daily); up ~70% YTD on massive rally.
- Key Support/Resistance:
- Support: $4,441–$4,450 (near-term hold), $4,373–$4,400 deeper
- Resistance: $4,500 (psychological/record), $4,525–$4,576 extension
- Overall Technical Trend: Daily/Weekly bias strongly bullish (ascending channel intact, Strong Buy signals); overbought but momentum persists in HTF uptrend.
Technical Analysis Overview 🔍
- Major Levels: Bullish channel from 2025 lows; resistance cluster $4,500–$4,525. Support zone $4,441–$4,450.
- Potential Setups:
- Setup #1 (Liquidity Sweep → BOS → Reclaim): Watching sweep below $4,450 then reclaim for continuation (A+ on clean retest).
- Setup #2 (Compression → Expansion): Coiling near $4,500 record – breakout potential upside if cleared.
- Setup #3 (Extreme Mean Reversion): Not triggered; recent ADR moderate (~150–200 pips daily ranges, no 2–3x extremes).
- H4/Daily structure heavily favors buyers; prefer London/NY volatility, but holiday thin trade caution.
| Level Type | Price | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance | 4,500 | Psychological + record high |
| Resistance | 4,525–4,576 | Extension targets |
| Support | 4,450–4,441 | Key pivot + channel support |
| Support | 4,373 | Deeper imbalance / demand zone |
Retail Sentiment from Twitter/X and Social Media 🐑 Recent X discussions dominated by promotional signals and bullish calls on dips; mixed but leaning heavily long (buy signals, targets $4,500+). Crowds crowded long near highs – classic contrarian watch for fade if rejection.
Retail Sentiment from Sources 📉
- Myfxbook: ~58% short / 42% long (retail moderately short, contrarian bullish implication – fade retail shorts).
- OANDA/IG/FXSSI: Data holiday-affected/sparse; average ~53–65% long (crowded long extremes in spots) → potential fade if technicals align lower. No sharp extremes today.
Professional/Institutional Sentiment 🏦
- Bloomberg/FXStreet/Traders: Strongly bullish; record highs on rate cuts/geopolitics.
- Bank Reports (JPM/Goldman): Highly positive – JPM >$5,000 2026, Goldman $4,900 end-2026; central bank/ETF demand drives. Overall institutional bias bullish Gold.
Most Recent COT Report 📑
- Latest: As of mid-December 2025 (Dec 16 data).
- Speculators (non-commercial): Net-longs ~234K (building from prior, bullish accumulation).
- Changes: Increasing longs recent weeks → supportive for upside.
- Implications: Specs heavily long Gold; aligns with trend, watch extremes for contrarian.
Fundamental Drivers 🌍
- Key Themes: Fed rate cuts expected 2026; geopolitical tensions (Venezuela, Middle East); central bank buying (strong Q3); ETF inflows; safe-haven vs. USD weakness.
- Upcoming Events (Dec 24): Holiday-thin (Christmas Eve early close); low-impact USD claims/durables possible – softer data → Gold bullish; no red news, low vol expected.
Overall Market Bias and Trading Ideas ⚖️
- Synthesized Bias: Strongly Bullish (HTF channel + institutional/spec longs + fundamentals); neutral short-term on holidays/low vol. Fade retail longs if rejection at records.
- Potential Setups (H4/Daily only):
- Preferred: Bullish Breakout (Setup #2) – Expansion above $4,500 compression. Entry ~$4,510; Stop below $4,450; Targets $4,576 (1:3 RR), $4,700+ (1:5+ A+ on volume).
- Alternative: Reclaim dip to $4,450 liquidity (Setup #1) – Entry reclaim ~$4,460; Targets same. Risk small – wait for perfection in thin trade.
- Risks: Pullback below $4,441 → deeper to $4,373 (monitor reversion). No force; asymmetry in holidays.
Calm, patient – liquidity + structure only. High-probability amid record rally.