📊 Pair: GBP/USD (Cable) 📅 Date: December 29, 2025
Current Price and Trend Snapshot 🌍
- Current Level: ~1.3490 (thin post-holiday liquidity, holding near multi-week highs around 1.35).
- Recent Move: Up ~7.3-7.9% YTD, strongest performance in years, driven by USD weakness and relative GBP resilience post-BoE cuts.
- Key Levels: Support at 1.3400–1.3300; Resistance at 1.3500 (psychological) → 1.3600.
- Overall Trend: Bullish on Daily/Weekly (higher highs/lows intact); HTF bias favors buyers amid USD sell-off, but holiday thinness risks chop.
Technical Analysis Overview 📈
- Major Levels: Trendline support ~1.3300–1.3400; Imbalance zones around 1.3450–1.3500.
- Potential Setups:
- Setup #1 potential: Liquidity grabs below recent lows → watching for BOS higher and reclaim of 1.3500+.
- Coiled near 1.35 suggests Compression → Expansion upside breakout if vol returns.
- No extreme ADR extension; mean reversion risk on overbought signals short-term.
- Daily: Bullish momentum with price above key MAs; Weekly: Recovery from mid-year lows, targeting 1.36–1.39 if sustained.
Retail Sentiment from X/Twitter & Social Media 🐦 Recent posts sparse due to holidays; trader chatter mixed but leans cautious bullish on structure holds, with some calling dips buys amid USD weakness. Contrarian note: Low engagement suggests retail not heavily positioned yet—watch for extremes post-year-end flows.
Retail Sentiment Table
| Source | % Long | % Short | Extremes/Implications |
|---|---|---|---|
| Myfxbook | 70% | 30% | Moderately long → Mild contrarian bearish if extremes build, but aligns with trend |
| OANDA/IG/FXSSI | ~55-60% long (aggregated) | ~40-45% | No strong extreme; typical retail chasing uptrend → Fade potential on failures |
Professional/Institutional Sentiment 🏦
- Bloomberg/FXStreet/TradingView: Bullish into 2026; targets 1.36–1.39 on policy divergence.
- Bank Reports (JPM, Goldman, MUFG): Moderately bullish GBP/USD (1.36-1.39 by mid-2026); Fed cuts outpacing cautious BoE easing, narrowing yield gap favorably for Cable. Implications: Specs supportive, real money dipping on pullbacks.
Most Recent COT Report 📊 Latest (mid-Dec 2025): Large specs net-long ~33k contracts (stable); asset managers mildly net-short but reducing. Weekly changes minimal amid holidays—implies steady bullish positioning, potential for adds on USD weakness continuation.
Fundamental Drivers 💼
- Ongoing Themes: Fed easing cycle (75bps+ cuts in 2025) vs. BoE reluctant cuts (to 3.75%, slower pace ahead); USD yield advantage eroding supports Cable. UK inflation cooling but growth fragile.
- Upcoming Events (Dec 29): No red-folder high-impact news—holiday-extended thin liquidity; year-end repositioning possible. Expected reaction: Low vol, potential squaring flows favoring risk-on (bullish GBP).
Overall Market Bias and Trading Ideas ⚖️ Synthesize: Bullish HTF bias (structure + Fed dovishness + institutional targets + no retail extreme shorts = asymmetry higher). Thin vol risks noise, but fundamentals/institutions favor patient longs.
Potential Setups (H4/Daily Only):
- A-Setup (Liquidity Sweep → BOS → Reclaim): Dip to 1.3400–1.3420 liquidity grab → clean retest → long targeting 1.3600+ (RR 1:6+). Stop below weekly low.
- Risk: Fakeouts in low vol; never force—wait for London/NY confirmation.
- Aligns with fading any retail chase failures; small risk on chop, perfection on clean zones.
Calm execution—market comes to us. Asymmetry in bulls here into 2026.