GBP/USD Daily Edge Report – December 23, 2025
📊 Pair: GBP/USD (Cable) 📅 Date: December 23, 2025
Current Price and Trend Snapshot 📈
- Current Level: ~1.3475–1.3490
- Recent Move: Mild upside recovery (+0.10–0.50%), benefiting from USD softness; highest levels in weeks amid holiday-thinned trading.
- Key Support/Resistance:
- Support: 1.3400 (near-term hold), 1.3350–1.3300
- Resistance: 1.3500 (psychological), 1.3600 extension
- Overall Technical Trend: Daily/Weekly bias bullish (ascending channel intact, Strong Buy on indicators); higher timeframe uptrend from 2025 lows, though overbought RSI signals caution.
Technical Analysis Overview 🔍
- Major Levels: Rising channel support ~1.3300; key resistance cluster 1.3450–1.3500. Trendline from 2025 lows defended.
- Potential Setups:
- Setup #1 (Liquidity Sweep → BOS → Reclaim): Watching sweep below 1.3400 then reclaim for continuation (A setup on clean retest).
- Setup #2 (Compression → Expansion): Coiling near 1.3500 – breakout potential if cleared decisively.
- Setup #3 (Extreme Mean Reversion): Not active; recent 20-day ADR ~80–110 pips (moderate volatility, no 2–3x extremes).
- H4/Daily structure favors buyers; prefer London/NY session confirmation.
| Level Type | Price | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance | 1.3500 | Psychological + channel top |
| Resistance | 1.3600 | Extension target |
| Support | 1.3400 | Key pivot + prior resistance |
| Support | 1.3300 | Channel base / deeper hold |
Retail Sentiment from Twitter/X and Social Media 🐑 Recent X chatter limited (holiday period), but mixed: some bullish on channel defense/dips, others cautious on resistance rejection. Crowds leaning neutral-slightly long – classic contrarian watch if extremes build at highs.
Retail Sentiment from Sources 📉
- Myfxbook: ~70% long / 30% short (retail heavily long at higher averages ~1.3400) → strong contrarian bearish implication if tops form.
- OANDA/IG/FXSSI: Data sparse/holiday-affected; historically retail crowded long near peaks – fade potential if technicals align lower. No confirmed extremes today.
Professional/Institutional Sentiment 🏦
- Bloomberg/FXStreet/Traders: Mildly bullish near-term on USD weakness; longer-term mixed on policy divergence.
- Bank Reports (JPM/Goldman): Forecasts ~1.36–1.39 by mid-2026; supportive of GBP resilience vs. fading USD exceptionalism. Overall institutional bias bullish Cable.
Most Recent COT Report 📑
- Latest: Early-mid December 2025 (delayed releases).
- Speculators (non-commercial): Increasing net-longs on GBP (bullish shift, +longs/-shorts recent weeks).
- Changes: Gradual bullish accumulation → supportive for upside.
- Implications: Specs aligning with GBP strength; contrarian edge vs. retail longs if overdone.
Fundamental Drivers 🌍
- Key Themes: BoE dovish (recent cut, potential more in 2026) vs. Fed cautious; narrowing divergence favors GBP on USD yield retreat. UK inflation cooling, growth stable.
- Upcoming Events (Dec 23): USD-focused – CB Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales, Richmond PMI, Durable Goods. Softer data → USD weak (GBP bullish); hawkish surprises → reversal risk. Low volume holidays amplify moves.
Overall Market Bias and Trading Ideas ⚖️
- Synthesized Bias: Mildly Bullish (HTF channel + institutional/spec longs); neutral short-term on low vol/holidays. Fade retail longs if rejection at 1.3500.
- Potential Setups (H4/Daily only):
- Preferred: Bullish Breakout (Setup #2) – Compression expansion above 1.3500. Entry ~1.3510; Stop below 1.3450; Targets 1.3600 (1:3 RR), 1.3700+ (1:5+ A+ on volume).
- Alternative: Reclaim dip to 1.3400 liquidity (Setup #1) – Entry reclaim ~1.3420; Targets same. Risk small – wait for perfection.
- Risks: Breakdown below 1.3400 → bearish to 1.3300 (monitor reversion). No force; asymmetry first.
Calm, patient – liquidity + structure only. High-probability edges in thin markets.