EUR/USD Daily Edge Report – December 29, 2025
Current Price and Trend Snapshot 🌍
- Current Level: ~1.1770 (thin holiday liquidity, minor dip from 1.1780 highs).
- Recent Move: Up ~13% YTD — strongest year since 2017, driven by USD weakness post-Fed cuts and euro resilience.
- Key Levels: Support at 1.1710–1.1650; Resistance at 1.1800 (psychological) → 1.1830–1.1870.
- Overall Trend: Bullish on Daily/Weekly (higher highs/lows, above key MAs); HTF bias favors buyers but overbought signals caution short-term pullbacks.
Technical Analysis Overview 📈
- Major Levels: Trendline support ~1.1700; Imbalance/FVG around 1.1750–1.1770.
- Potential Setups:
- Setup #1 candidate: Recent liquidity sweep below prior lows → BOS higher → watching for clean reclaim of 1.1800.
- Coiled range near 1.18 suggests possible Compression → Expansion breakout.
- No extreme ADR move yet; mean reversion risk if overextended.
- Daily: Strong Buy signals (MAs/RSI bullish but nearing overbought). Weekly: Bullish recovery intact, targeting 1.19–1.20 if momentum holds.
Retail Sentiment from X/Twitter & Social Media 🐦 Recent discussions mixed: Signal spam dominates, but trader posts show split — some calling shorts on overbought conditions, others bullish on structure (e.g., “buy the dip” to 1.18+). Contrarian edge: Retail often fades strong trends; current chatter leans cautious short-term bearish amid holiday thinness.
Retail Sentiment Table
| Source | % Long | % Short | Extremes/Implications |
|---|---|---|---|
| Myfxbook | 18% | 82% | Extreme short → Strong contrarian bullish signal (crowd wrong at extremes) |
| OANDA/IG/FXSSI | N/A | N/A | Typically aligns with heavy retail shorts in uptrends → Fade potential |
Professional/Institutional Sentiment 🏦
- Bloomberg/FXStreet: Mixed — some see bearish long-term risks (parity threats faded), but 2025 strength noted.
- TradingView Analysts: Mostly bullish ideas (trendline buys, targets 1.19–1.20).
- Bank Reports (JPM, Goldman, etc.): Moderately bullish into 2026 (targets 1.20–1.25); fading US exceptionalism, ECB pause vs. Fed cuts. Implications: Specs building euro longs → supportive.
Most Recent COT Report 📊 Latest data (as of mid-Dec 2025): Specs (non-commercial) increasing net-longs amid USD weakness; commercials hedging; small traders mixed. Weekly changes show building bullish positions — implies sustained upside pressure if specs continue adding.
Fundamental Drivers 💼
- Ongoing Themes: Yield divergence narrowing (Fed cut cycle vs. ECB likely on hold); softer US data fuels USD sales, euro benefits from relative stability.
- Upcoming Events (Dec 29): No high-impact red news — thin liquidity dominates; watch for position squaring into year-end. Expected reaction: Low vol, range-bound unless surprise flows.
Overall Market Bias and Trading Ideas ⚖️ Synthesize: Mildly Bullish HTF bias (structure + institutional flows + extreme retail shorts = contrarian long edge). Fundamentals support asymmetry higher into 2026, but holiday noise risks shallow pullbacks.
Potential Setups (H4/Daily Only):
- A-Setup (Liquidity Sweep → BOS → Reclaim): Wait for dip to 1.1710–1.1730 (liquidity grab), clean retest → long targeting 1.1830–1.1900 (RR 1:6+). Stop below recent low.
- Risk: Thin vol → fakeouts; no force — market must deliver clean zone.
- Fade retail shorts if technicals align; small risk on noise, bigger on perfection.
Stay calm — wait for London/NY sessions. Asymmetry favors patient bulls here.