AUD/USD Daily Edge Report – December 29, 2025
📊 Pair: AUD/USD (Aussie) 📅 Date: December 29, 2025
Current Price and Trend Snapshot 🌍
- Current Level: ~0.6720 (thin holiday liquidity, consolidating near multi-month highs).
- Recent Move: Up ~8.5% YTD — strong recovery driven by USD weakness and commodity resilience.
- Key Levels: Support at 0.6650–0.6600; Resistance at 0.6750 → 0.6800–0.6900.
- Overall Trend: Bullish on Daily/Weekly (higher highs/lows, above key MAs); HTF bias favors buyers amid Fed dovishness, but overbought risks short-term dips.
Technical Analysis Overview 📈
- Major Levels: Trendline support ~0.6600; Imbalance/FVG near 0.6700.
- Potential Setups:
- Setup #1 candidate: Liquidity sweeps below recent lows → BOS higher → reclaim of 0.6750+.
- Coiled near highs suggests Compression → Expansion breakout potential post-holidays.
- No extreme ADR yet; watch for mean reversion if extended.
- Daily: Strong Buy (MAs bullish); Weekly: Bullish channel intact, targeting 0.69–0.70 if momentum sustains.
Retail Sentiment from X/Twitter & Social Media 🐦 Holiday quiet; recent posts highlight bullish surges (fresh highs, long TPs), with some calling buys on dips/structure. Chatter aligns with uptrend—contrarian edge mild if retail chases extremes into new year.
Retail Sentiment Table
| Source | % Long | % Short | Extremes/Implications |
|---|---|---|---|
| Myfxbook | ~18% | ~82% | Extreme short → Strong contrarian bullish (crowd often wrong in trends) |
| OANDA/IG/FXSSI | ~50-60% long (aggregated est.) | ~40-50% | Balanced to mildly long; no heavy extreme → Fade chase on failures |
Professional/Institutional Sentiment 🏦
- Bloomberg/FXStreet/TradingView: Bullish near-term; hawkish RBA vs. dovish Fed supports higher into 2026 (targets 0.68–0.72).
- Bank Reports (JPM, Goldman, etc.): Moderately bullish AUD/USD; policy divergence (RBA hold/hike bias vs. Fed cuts) + commodities favor Aussie. Implications: Specs adding longs, real money supportive.
Most Recent COT Report 📊 Latest (mid-Dec 2025, as of Dec 9-16 data): Specs (non-commercial) reducing shorts/increasing net-longs modestly amid USD sales; commercials hedging. Weekly changes show building bullish bets—implies upside pressure if continues.
Fundamental Drivers 💼
- Ongoing Themes: Yield divergence (RBA hawkish hold vs. Fed easing cycle); commodity strength (China ties, metals); USD broad weakness post-Fed cuts.
- Upcoming Events (Dec 29): No high-impact red news—extended holiday thin liquidity; year-end flows possible. Expected reaction: Low vol, range/squaring with risk-on tilt (bullish AUD).
Overall Market Bias and Trading Ideas ⚖️ Synthesize: Bullish HTF bias (structure + divergence + extreme retail shorts + institutional adds = contrarian long asymmetry). Fundamentals support higher into 2026, but thin vol risks chop/pullbacks.
Potential Setups (H4/Daily Only):
- A-Setup (Liquidity Sweep → BOS → Reclaim): Dip/sweep to 0.6650–0.6670 → clean retest → long targeting 0.6800–0.6900 (RR 1:6+). Stop below low.
- Risk: Holiday fakeouts/low vol; no force—wait London/NY sessions for clean zone.
- Fade retail shorts if technicals confirm; small risk on noise, perfection on liquidity events.
Stay patient—market delivers the edge. Asymmetry favors calm bulls here.