XAU/USD Daily Edge Report – December 29, 2025
📊 Pair: XAU/USD (Gold) 📅 Date: December 29, 2025
Current Price and Trend Snapshot 🌍
- Current Level: ~4517–4533 (thin holiday liquidity, minor pullback from record highs ~4536).
- Recent Move: Massive rally +70–73% YTD — historic strongest year since 1979, new ATHs repeatedly.
- Key Levels: Support at 4495–4470; Resistance at 4536 (recent ATH) → 4550–4600.
- Overall Trend: Strongly Bullish on Daily/Weekly (higher highs/lows, parabolic uptrend); HTF bias overwhelmingly favors buyers amid USD weakness & safe-haven flows.
Technical Analysis Overview 📈
- Major Levels: Trendline/channel support ~4470–4495; Imbalance zones near 4500–4525.
- Potential Setups:
- Setup #1 candidate: Liquidity sweeps below recent lows → BOS higher → reclaim for continuation longs.
- Coiled near ATH suggests Compression → Expansion breakout upside post-holidays.
- Overbought but no reversal; watch for mean reversion only on extreme extension.
- Daily: Strong Buy (above MAs); Weekly: Parabolic uptrend intact, targeting 4600+ if vol returns.
Retail Sentiment from X/Twitter & Social Media 🐦 Holiday quiet; recent posts dominated by signal spam/ads (free channels, buy/sell calls). Minimal real discussion—no strong extremes, but scattered bullish calls on dips. Contrarian: Low engagement suggests retail not overcrowded yet; watch FOMO into new year.
Retail Sentiment Table
| Source | % Long | % Short | Extremes/Implications |
|---|---|---|---|
| Myfxbook | ~44% | ~56% | Mild short → Potential contrarian bullish (retail often wrong in strong trends) |
| OANDA/IG/FXSSI | ~50-60% long (aggregated est.) | ~40-50% | Balanced; no heavy extreme → Fade chase on failures |
Professional/Institutional Sentiment 🏦
- Bloomberg/FXStreet/TradingView: Strongly bullish; new ATHs, targets 4600+ short-term, 4900–5300 by end-2026.
- Bank Reports (JPM, Goldman, BofA): Very bullish into 2026 (JPM ~5055 avg Q4, Goldman 4900 Dec, others 5000+); central bank buying + Fed cuts + ETF inflows drive. Implications: Specs heavily net-long, building further.
Most Recent COT Report 📊 Latest (as of Dec 16, 2025): Non-commercial (specs) net-long ~234k contracts (up from prior, building amid rally); commercials hedging; small traders mixed. Weekly changes show increasing longs—implies sustained bullish pressure from specs.
Fundamental Drivers 💼
- Ongoing Themes: Fed easing cycle (cuts into 2026) lowers opportunity cost; massive central bank buying (~70-80t/month expected); USD weakness + safe-haven/geopolitical demand; ETF inflows resuming.
- Upcoming Events (Dec 29): No high-impact red news—extended holiday thin liquidity; year-end squaring possible. Expected reaction: Low vol, range-bound with potential upside bias on thin flows.
Overall Market Bias and Trading Ideas ⚖️ Synthesize: Strongly Bullish HTF bias (parabolic structure + institutional targets + spec longs building + mild retail shorts = contrarian long asymmetry). Fundamentals scream higher into 2026 ($5000+ plausible), but thin vol risks shallow pullbacks/chop.
Potential Setups (H4/Daily Only):
- A-Setup (Liquidity Sweep → BOS → Reclaim): Dip/sweep to 4490–4470 → clean retest → long targeting 4550–4600+ (RR 1:7+). Stop below low.
- Risk: Holiday fakeouts/low vol; never force—wait London/NY for clean zone.
- Fade any retail shorts/chase failures; small risk on noise, perfection on liquidity events.
Patient bulls rewarded here—market delivering massive asymmetry.