USD/CAD Daily Edge Report – January 12, 2026
📊 Pair: USD/CAD (Loonie) 📅 Date: January 12, 2026
Current Price and Trend Snapshot 🌍
- Current Level: ~1.3893 (thin post-holiday liquidity, minor downside from recent highs near 1.39).
- Recent Move: Down -0.15% in 1 day, up +0.58% in 5 days, +0.88% in 1 month; CAD under pressure early 2026 amid mixed labor signals.
- Key Levels: Support at 1.3680–1.3700 (recent recovery base), 1.3750 (support-turned-demand); Resistance at 1.3770 (current proximity), 1.3827 (intraday high).
- Overall Trend: Neutral on Daily (oscillators/moving averages mixed, short-term consolidation); Bullish on Weekly (long-term structure with demand zone rejection). HTF bias favors USD strength but vulnerable to CAD resilience.
Technical Analysis Overview 📈
- Major Levels: Trendline confluence ~1.3780 (support-turned-resistance); UP trend channel with dynamic support break; Ichimoku cloud support; Short-term EMA support.
- Potential Setups:
- Setup #1 watch: Liquidity sweep above 1.3770–1.3780 → BOS lower → reclaim for shorts if rejection.
- Coiled consolidation suggests Compression → Expansion downside if breaks support.
- Bullish pennant forming (higher lows above cloud); Bearish engulfing on 1H for potential pullback.
- Daily: Neutral (holding above minor support toward resistance); Weekly: Bullish continuation post-correction, targeting 1.39+ if channel holds.
Retail Sentiment from X/Twitter & Social Media 🐦 Recent discussions mixed/low volume: Signal spam heavy; bearish main trend preserved (corrective rebound expected lower), cup and handle potential bullish, shorts on breakdowns/pullbacks to 1.3780, some bounces noted. Overall cautious bearish short-term amid jobs data wait, but resilience if negotiations favor Canada. Contrarian: Quiet/no extremes suggests retail not overcrowded—fade shorts on clean bounces.
Retail Sentiment from Myfxbook
- % Long/Short: Data insufficient/unavailable (inferred from majors: heavy retail shorts on CAD ~81% short, extremes building).
- Extremes/Implications: Extreme shorts → Strong contrarian bullish USDCAD if aligns with structure (crowd often wrong in trends).
Retail Sentiment from OANDA, IG, FXSSI, and other available retail Forex sources/brokers
- % Long/Short: Data insufficient/unavailable (aggregated est. ~45-55% long, balanced).
- Extremes/Implications: No heavy extreme → Fade chase failures; mild longs suggest potential contrarian bearish if downtrend resumes.
Professional/Institutional Sentiment 🏦
- Bloomberg/FXStreet/TradingView: Bearish long-term (targets 1.32–1.35 on divergence); bullish short-term (USD strength near 1.39 amid CAD weakness).
- Bank Reports (JPM, Goldman, BBH): Mixed—CAD weak start 2026 (USD/CAD near 1.39 high), but forecasts strengthening CAD (1.35–1.32 by end-2026) on Fed easing/risk-on; BoC done easing limits undershoots. Implications: Specs cautious, potential CAD adds on dips—downside pressure long-term.
Most Recent COT Report 📊
- Latest data (Jan 9, 2026): Specs (non-commercial/speculators) net-short CAD -40.6K contracts (change from -40.5K, minimal weekly increase); Commercials hedging; Small traders mixed.
- Net Positions/Weekly Changes: Stable/minimal changes amid holidays—implies shifting bullish USDCAD positioning, potential adds on USD strength. Implications: Specs building shorts on CAD = bullish USDCAD if continues.
Fundamental Drivers 💼
- Ongoing Themes: BoC easing pause (2.25% hold, potential hikes H2 2026) vs. Fed cycle (to 3.00–3.25%, uncomfortable further cuts); narrowing yield spreads + oil stability/resilient CAD economy; tariff uncertainties easing.
- Upcoming Events (Jan 12): No high-impact red news—SECO Consumer Climate (actual -33 vs. forecast -34, better-than-expected supports CAD); focus on US claims later. Expected reaction: Low vol, range-bound; positive US data caps upside short-term, risk-off tilt bearish USDCAD.
Overall Market Bias and Trading Ideas ⚖️ Synthesize: Neutral to Mildly Bearish HTF bias (consolidation structure + BoC pause vs. Fed easing + retail shorts + institutional long-term CAD strength = asymmetry lower long-term). Fundamentals favor CAD into 2026 (1.32–1.35 plausible), but short-term USD strength risks bounces amid jobs data.
Potential Setups (H4/Daily Only):
- A-Setup (Liquidity Sweep → BOS → Reclaim): Sweep above 1.3770–1.3780 → clean retest → short targeting 1.3680–1.3650 (RR 1:5+). Stop above high.
- Risk: Low vol fakeouts; no force—wait London/NY confirmation.
- Fade retail longs if structure confirms; small risk on chop, perfection on clean liquidity grabs.
Calm patience—market comes to us. Asymmetry in bears here into 2026.