USD/CHF Daily Edge Report – January 12, 2026
📊 Pair: USD/CHF (Swissie) 📅 Date: January 12, 2026
Current Price and Trend Snapshot 🌍
- Current Level: ~0.7980 (thin post-holiday liquidity, minor consolidation near recent lows).
- Recent Move: Down ~11% YTD in 2025, with CHF strengthening on safe-haven flows and USD weakness; recent range 0.7973–0.8018.
- Key Levels: Support at 0.7973–0.7944 (recent lows); Resistance at 0.8018–0.8035 (1D MA200 test potential).
- Overall Trend: Bearish on Daily/Weekly (lower highs/lows, corrective/downtrend intact); HTF bias favors CHF strength amid narrowing yields, but holiday chop risks bounces.
Technical Analysis Overview 📈
- Major Levels: Trendline resistance ~0.8035; Imbalance zones near 0.7980–0.8000.
- Potential Setups:
- Setup #1 watch: Liquidity sweep above recent highs → BOS lower → reclaim for shorts.
- Coiled range suggests Compression → Expansion downside potential post-holidays.
- Sell signals dominant; potential for further drop to 0.7944–0.7904.
- Daily: Bearish momentum (below MAs); Weekly: Downtrend from prior highs, targeting sub-0.79 if sustained.
Retail Sentiment from X/Twitter & Social Media 🐦 Holiday quiet; recent posts sparse—signal spam dominates, with mixed calls (shorts on breakdowns, longs on bounces). Low engagement/no strong extremes—contrarian edge neutral, watch for post-holiday positioning.
Retail Sentiment Table
| Source | % Long | % Short | Extremes/Implications |
|---|---|---|---|
| Myfxbook | ~70% | ~30% | Moderately long → Mild contrarian bearish if aligns with downtrend |
| OANDA/IG/FXSSI | ~60-70% long (aggregated est.) | ~30-40% | Mild extreme longs; fade longs on breakdowns |
Professional/Institutional Sentiment 🏦
- Bloomberg/FXStreet/TradingView: Bearish USD/CHF into 2026; targets lower (0.78–0.72) on narrowing differentials and CHF safe-haven.
- Bank Reports (JPM, Goldman, UBS): Bearish overall (targets ~0.78); SNB hold/low rates vs. Fed cuts narrow spreads, structural CHF support. Implications: Specs reducing USD longs, potential downside acceleration.
Most Recent COT Report 📊 Latest (as of Jan 6, 2026): Specs (non-commercial) net positions shifting toward CHF strength/reducing USD longs amid broad USD sales; weekly changes minimal in holidays—implies building bearish pressure if trend resumes.
Fundamental Drivers 💼
- Ongoing Themes: Yield spread narrowing (Fed easing vs. SNB ultra-low/hold at ~0%); persistent CHF safe-haven demand + low Swiss inflation reinforce strength.
- Upcoming Events (Jan 12): SECO Consumer Climate (actual -33 vs. forecast -34)—better-than-expected supports CHF; no other high-impact red news—thin liquidity dominates. Expected reaction: Low vol, range-bound with potential risk-off tilt (bearish USD/CHF).
Overall Market Bias and Trading Ideas ⚖️ Synthesize: Bearish HTF bias (structure breaks + narrowing differentials + retail long extremes + institutional targets = contrarian short asymmetry). Fundamentals favor CHF into 2026, but thin vol risks shallow bounces/noise.
Potential Setups (H4/Daily Only):
- A-Setup (Liquidity Sweep → BOS → Reclaim): Sweep above 0.8018–0.8035 → clean retest → short targeting 0.7944–0.7904 (RR 1:6+). Stop above high.
- Risk: Holiday fakeouts; never force—wait London/NY for clean confirmation.
- Fade retail longs if structure aligns; small risk on chop, perfection on liquidity events.
Calm execution—let the market deliver. Asymmetry in patient bears here.