USD/JPY Daily Edge Report – January 12, 2026
📊 Pair: USD/JPY 📅 Date: January 12, 2026
Current Price and Trend Snapshot 🌍
- Current Level: ~158.10 (thin post-holiday liquidity, bouncing back mildly).
- Recent Move: +0.14% intraday after dipping to 157.50 early Asian; consolidation around 158.00 amid USD rebound.
- Key Levels: Support at 157.50–157.44 (Bollinger/Fib), 157.00; Resistance at 158.49–158.70 (pivot/R1), 158.91 (prior high).
- Overall Trend: Bullish on Daily/Weekly (trend index bullish, above key MAs, overbought signals); HTF bias favors carry strength but risks pullbacks in low vol.
Technical Analysis Overview 📈
- Major Levels: Trendline support ~157.44 (Fib 38.2% weekly); Resistance trendline at 158.70–158.91.
- Potential Setups:
- Setup #1 watch: Liquidity sweep below 157.50 → BOS higher → reclaim for longs.
- Coiled range suggests Compression → Expansion upside if breaks 158.70.
- Overbought OB/OS index short-term; mean reversion risk if fails highs.
- Daily: Bullish (shrinking volatility); Weekly: Bullish bias intact, eyeing 160+ if carry holds.
Retail Sentiment from X/Twitter & Social Media 🐦 Low volume holiday chatter: Signal spam heavy, scattered shorts (“short USDJPY”, breakdowns), some long signals on bounces. Mixed/cautious short-term. Contrarian: No strong extremes/quiet suggests retail not overcrowded—fade shorts on clean holds.
Retail Sentiment Table
| Source | % Long | % Short | Extremes/Implications |
|---|---|---|---|
| Myfxbook | 22% | 78% | Extreme short → Strong contrarian bullish (crowd wrong in carry uptrends) |
| OANDA/IG/FXSSI | ~45-55% long (est.) | ~45-55% | Balanced; no heavy extreme → Fade chase on failures |
Professional/Institutional Sentiment 🏦
- Bloomberg/FXStreet/TradingView: Bullish short-term (USD rebound/yields); cautious 2026 on BoJ path (yen weaken to 160+ possible).
- Bank Reports (JPM, Goldman): Bullish USD/JPY (JPM ~164 end-2026, others 160+); BoJ cautious normalization vs. Fed cuts keeps spread supportive. Implications: Specs building longs, carry alive despite risks.
Most Recent COT Report 📊 Latest (Jan 6, 2026): Specs (non-commercial) net positions shifting modestly bullish (reducing shorts); commercials hedging. Weekly changes minimal—implies steady carry positioning, potential adds on USD strength.
Fundamental Drivers 💼
- Ongoing Themes: Yield spread favors USD (Fed pause vs. BoJ gradual hikes); carry trade resilient despite BoJ risks, political/geopolitical volatility.
- Upcoming Events (Jan 12): No high-impact red news—focus on US claims; week has Fed speakers/BoJ risks. Expected reaction: Low vol, range-bound; strong US data supports USD/JPY.
Overall Market Bias and Trading Ideas ⚖️ Synthesize: Mildly Bullish HTF bias (carry structure + divergence + extreme retail shorts + spec longs = contrarian long asymmetry). Fundamentals favor higher into 2026 (160+ plausible), but thin vol risks chop/pullbacks.
Potential Setups (H4/Daily Only):
- A-Setup (Liquidity Sweep → BOS → Reclaim): Sweep below 157.50 → clean retest → long targeting 158.70–160.00 (RR 1:5+). Stop below low.
- Risk: Fakeouts in low vol; wait London/NY confirmation—no force.
- Fade retail shorts if technicals align; small risk on noise, perfection on clean liquidity events.
Calm—market comes to us. Asymmetry in patient carries here.