AUD/USD Daily Edge Report – January 12, 2026
📊 Pair: AUD/USD (Aussie) 📅 Date: January 12, 2026
Current Price and Trend Snapshot 🌍
- Current Level: ~0.6696 (thin post-holiday liquidity, minor pullback after recent highs near 0.6707).
- Recent Move: +0.13% in the last session (from 0.6687 close); up ~9% YTD in 2025 driven by USD weakness and commodity resilience.
- Key Levels: Support at 0.6679–0.6650 (day’s low/channel support); Resistance at 0.6707–0.6720 (day’s high/psychological).
- Overall Trend: Bullish on Daily/Weekly (higher highs/lows, ascending channel intact, above key MAs); HTF bias favors buyers amid policy divergence, but short-term corrective dip risks shallow pullbacks.
Technical Analysis Overview 📈
- Major Levels: Trendline support ~0.6650 (ascending channel lower boundary); Imbalance/FVG near 0.6690–0.6700; Resistance at 0.6720–0.6765 (recent highs).
- Potential Setups:
- Setup #1 candidate: Liquidity sweep below 0.6659 → BOS higher → reclaim for longs targeting 0.6765+.
- Coiled near channel support suggests Compression → Expansion upside breakout if vol returns.
- No extreme ADR extension; RSI ~56 (neutral-buy)—watch mean reversion if fails 0.6707 resistance.
- Daily: Strong Buy signals (above MAs); Weekly: Uptrend from 2025 lows intact, targeting 0.69–0.71 if channel holds.
Retail Sentiment from X/Twitter & Social Media 🐦 Recent discussions sparse/low volume amid holidays; signal spam heavy with mixed calls—short opportunities noted (“waiting for short”, “short AUDUSD”), some dip-buys and golden cross alerts. Overall cautious short-term bearish chatter on breakdowns, but bullish on bounces. Contrarian: No strong extremes/quiet engagement suggests retail not overcrowded—fade shorts on clean structure holds.
Retail Sentiment Table
| Source | % Long | % Short | Extremes/Implications |
|---|---|---|---|
| Myfxbook | 19% | 81% | Extreme short → Strong contrarian bullish (crowd often wrong in uptrends) |
| OANDA/IG/FXSSI | ~45-55% long (aggregated est.) | ~45-55% | Balanced; no heavy extreme → Fade chase failures |
Professional/Institutional Sentiment 🏦
- Bloomberg/FXStreet/TradingView: Bullish into 2026; targets 0.69–0.71+ on policy divergence/commodities.
- Bank Reports (JPM, Goldman, etc.): Bullish AUD/USD (0.69-0.71 mid-2026); RBA hawkish hold/hike bias vs. Fed cuts favors Aussie. Implications: Specs adding longs, carry flows supportive—bearish USD bias H1 2026.
Most Recent COT Report 📊 Latest (Jan 9, 2026): Specs (non-commercial) net-short -19.0K contracts (improving from -21.2K, reducing shorts modestly); commercials hedging; small traders mixed. Weekly changes minimal/stable amid holidays—implies shifting bullish positioning, potential for further adds on USD weakness continuation.
Fundamental Drivers 💼
- Ongoing Themes: RBA hawkish hold (3.60%, possible hike bias) vs. Fed easing cycle (to ~3.00-3.25% in 2026); narrowing yield gap + commodity resilience (iron ore/gold supportive, China ties).
- Upcoming Events (Jan 12): No high-impact red news—focus on US unemployment claims later; broader week includes Australian labor data. Expected reaction: Low vol, range-bound; strong US data caps upside short-term, risk-on tilt bullish AUD.
Overall Market Bias and Trading Ideas ⚖️ Synthesize: Mildly Bullish HTF bias (uptrend channel + RBA divergence + extreme retail shorts + spec longs building = contrarian long asymmetry). Fundamentals favor higher into 2026 (0.69+ plausible), but thin vol/US data risks chop/pullbacks.
Potential Setups (H4/Daily Only):
- A-Setup (Liquidity Sweep → BOS → Reclaim): Sweep below 0.6659–0.6650 → clean retest → long targeting 0.6765–0.6900 (RR 1:6+). Stop below low.
- Risk: Fakeouts in low vol; wait London/NY confirmation—no force.
- Fade retail shorts if technicals confirm; small risk on noise, perfection on clean liquidity events.
Patient—market comes to us. Asymmetry in calm bulls here into 2026.