USD/CHF Daily Edge Report – January 02, 2026
Pair: USD/CHF (Swissie) 📅 Date: January 02, 2026
Current Price and Trend Snapshot 🌍
- Current Level: ~0.7930 (thin post-holiday liquidity, minor consolidation near multi-year lows).
- Recent Move: Down ~11-12% YTD in 2025, CHF appreciating strongly on safe-haven flows and USD weakness.
- Key Levels: Support at 0.7880–0.7828 (2025 lows); Resistance at 0.7960–0.8000.
- Overall Trend: Bearish on Daily/Weekly (lower highs/lows, corrective/downtrend); HTF bias favors CHF strength amid yield narrowing, but thin vol risks shallow bounces.
Technical Analysis Overview 📈
- Major Levels: Trendline resistance ~0.8000; Imbalance zones near 0.7920–0.7950.
- Potential Setups:
- Setup #1 watch: Liquidity sweep above recent highs → BOS lower → reclaim for shorts.
- Coiled range suggests Compression → Expansion downside post-holidays.
- Neutral to Sell signals; potential deeper correction to yearly lows.
- Daily: Neutral bias in tight range; Weekly: Downtrend intact, targeting sub-0.78 in longer-term forecasts.
Retail Sentiment from X/Twitter & Social Media 🐦 Post-holiday very quiet; discussions minimal, dominated by signal spam/ads. Sparse real chatter—one short trade noted, but low volume/no conviction. Contrarian: No extremes, quiet suggests retail not heavily positioned.
Retail Sentiment Table
| Source | % Long | % Short | Extremes/Implications |
|---|---|---|---|
| Myfxbook | ~72% | ~28% | Heavily long → Strong contrarian bearish (retail often chasing USD) |
| OANDA/IG/FXSSI | ~60-70% long (aggregated est.) | ~30-40% | Mild extreme longs; fade longs on breakdowns |
Professional/Institutional Sentiment 🏦
- Bloomberg/FXStreet/TradingView: Bearish into 2026; targets lower (0.78 stabilization or sub-0.78).
- Bank Reports (UBS, JPM, Goldman, others): Bearish overall; narrowing spreads + SNB hold + Fed easing support CHF strength. Implications: Specs reducing USD longs, downside risks.
Most Recent COT Report 📊 Latest (mid-Dec 2025): Specs (non-commercial) modestly shifting bearish/reducing longs amid USD weakness; weekly changes minimal—implies building pressure for lower if trend resumes.
Fundamental Drivers 💼
- Ongoing Themes: Yield spread narrowing (Fed potential cuts 2026 vs. SNB ultra-low/hold at ~0%); persistent CHF safe-haven + low inflation reinforce strength.
- Upcoming Events (Jan 02): No high-impact red news—extended holiday thin liquidity; year-start flows possible. Expected reaction: Low vol, range-bound with risk-off tilt (bearish USD/CHF).
Overall Market Bias and Trading Ideas ⚖️ Synthesize: Bearish HTF bias (downtrend structure + divergence + retail long extremes + institutional forecasts = contrarian short asymmetry). Fundamentals favor CHF into 2026 (lower plausible), but thin vol risks noise/bounces.
Potential Setups (H4/Daily Only):
- A-Setup (Liquidity Sweep → BOS → Reclaim): Sweep above 0.7960–0.7980 → clean retest → short targeting 0.7880–0.7800 (RR 1:6+). Stop above high.
- Risk: Holiday fakeouts; never force—wait London/NY for clean confirmation.
- Fade retail longs if structure aligns; small risk on chop, perfection on liquidity events.
Calm—let the market deliver. Asymmetry in patient bears here.