AUD/USD Daily Edge Report – January 02, 2026
📊 Pair: AUD/USD (Aussie) 📅 Date: January 02, 2026
Current Price and Trend Snapshot 🌍
- Current Level: ~0.6690 (thin post-holiday liquidity, holding near recent highs around 0.67).
- Recent Move: Up ~7-8% YTD in 2025, strong recovery on USD weakness and commodity support.
- Key Levels: Support at 0.6650–0.6600; Resistance at 0.6720 → 0.6800–0.6900.
- Overall Trend: Bullish on Daily/Weekly (higher highs/lows, breakout above long-term resistance); HTF bias favors buyers amid policy divergence, but thin vol risks shallow dips.
Technical Analysis Overview 📈
- Major Levels: Trendline support ~0.6600 (former descending resistance); Imbalance zones near 0.6650–0.6700.
- Potential Setups:
- Setup #1 candidate: Liquidity sweeps below recent lows → BOS higher → reclaim for continuation longs.
- Coiled near highs suggests Compression → Expansion upside breakout post-holidays.
- Bullish signals dominant; overbought but no reversal signs.
- Daily: Strong Buy (above MAs); Weekly: Major breakout from multi-year downtrend, targeting 0.69–0.71 if momentum holds.
Retail Sentiment from X/Twitter & Social Media 🐦 Post-holiday quiet; recent posts mostly signals/spam, with mixed calls but some noting rallies/defying shorts. Low volume—no strong extremes. Contrarian: Sparse engagement suggests retail not overcrowded; edge on clean structure breaks.
Retail Sentiment Table
| Source | % Long | % Short | Extremes/Implications |
|---|---|---|---|
| Myfxbook | ~18% | ~82% | Extreme short → Strong contrarian bullish (crowd often wrong in uptrends) |
| OANDA/IG/FXSSI | ~40-50% long (aggregated est.) | ~50-60% | Balanced; fade extremes on failures |
Professional/Institutional Sentiment 🏦
- Bloomberg/FXStreet/TradingView: Bullish into 2026; targets 0.69–0.71+ on divergence/commodities.
- Bank Reports (JPM, Goldman, ING, etc.): Bullish (0.69-0.71 by mid-2026); RBA hawkish hold/possible hike vs. Fed cuts favors AUD. Implications: Specs adding longs, carry supportive.
Most Recent COT Report 📊 Latest (mid-Dec 2025): Specs reducing net-shorts modestly/building longs amid USD weakness; weekly changes show shifting bullish bets—implies upside pressure if continues into new year.
Fundamental Drivers 💼
- Ongoing Themes: Divergence widening (RBA hold/hawkish at ~3.6% vs. Fed cuts to ~3.25-3.5%); commodities resilient (iron ore/gold supportive); China stability aids.
- Upcoming Events (Jan 02): No high-impact red news—extended holiday thin liquidity; year-start flows possible. Expected reaction: Low vol, range-bound with risk-on tilt (bullish AUD).
Overall Market Bias and Trading Ideas ⚖️ Synthesize: Bullish HTF bias (breakout structure + hawkish RBA + extreme retail shorts + institutional targets = contrarian long asymmetry). Fundamentals favor higher into 2026 (0.70+ plausible), but thin vol risks chop/pullbacks.
Potential Setups (H4/Daily Only):
- A-Setup (Liquidity Sweep → BOS → Reclaim): Dip/sweep to 0.6650–0.6600 → clean retest → long targeting 0.6800–0.6900 (RR 1:6+). Stop below low.
- Risk: Holiday fakeouts/low vol; no force—wait London/NY sessions for clean zone.
- Fade retail shorts if technicals align; small risk on noise, perfection on liquidity events.
Patient—market comes to us. Asymmetry in calm bulls here into 2026.