USD/CHF Daily Edge Report – December 29, 2025
📊 Pair: USD/CHF (Swissie) 📅 Date: December 29, 2025
Current Price and Trend Snapshot 🌍
- Current Level: ~0.7900 (thin holiday liquidity, consolidating near multi-year lows around 0.788-0.795).
- Recent Move: Down sharply YTD (~11-12%), with CHF strengthening significantly on safe-haven flows and USD weakness.
- Key Levels: Support at 0.7850–0.7828 (2025 lows); Resistance at 0.7950–0.8000.
- Overall Trend: Bearish on Daily/Weekly (lower highs/lows, corrective/downtrend intact); HTF bias favors CHF strength amid narrowing yields, but holiday chop risks bounces.
Technical Analysis Overview 📈
- Major Levels: Trendline resistance ~0.8000; Imbalance zones near 0.7920–0.7950.
- Potential Setups:
- Setup #1 watch: Liquidity sweep above recent highs → BOS lower → reclaim for shorts.
- Coiled range suggests Compression → Expansion downside potential post-holidays.
- Neutral to Sell signals; potential for further drop if breaks 0.7828.
- Daily: Bearish momentum (below MAs); Weekly: Downtrend from prior highs, targeting sub-0.78 if sustained.
Retail Sentiment from X/Twitter & Social Media 🐦 Holiday-extended quiet; recent discussions dominated by signal spam/ads, minimal real trader chatter on USD/CHF specifically. No strong conviction or extremes visible—contrarian edge neutral, watch for post-year-end flows.
Retail Sentiment Table
| Source | % Long | % Short | Extremes/Implications |
|---|---|---|---|
| Myfxbook | ~70-80% | ~20-30% | Heavily long → Strong contrarian bearish (retail chasing USD weakness failures) |
| OANDA/IG/FXSSI | ~60-70% long (aggregated est.) | ~30-40% | Mild extreme longs; typical retail wrong in trends → Fade longs on breakdowns |
Professional/Institutional Sentiment 🏦
- Bloomberg/FXStreet/TradingView: Bearish USD/CHF into 2026; targets lower (0.78-0.72) on persistent CHF safe-haven + yield erosion.
- Bank Reports (JPM, Goldman, MUFG): Bearish overall; SNB hold/low rates + Fed cuts narrow spreads, structural CHF support. Implications: Specs reducing USD longs, potential downside acceleration.
Most Recent COT Report 📊 Latest (mid-Dec 2025, as of Dec 16 data): Specs (non-commercial) net positions shifting modestly toward CHF strength/reducing USD longs amid broad USD sales; weekly changes minimal in holidays—implies building bearish pressure if trend resumes.
Fundamental Drivers 💼
- Ongoing Themes: Yield spread narrowing (Fed easing vs. SNB ultra-low/hold at ~0%); persistent CHF safe-haven demand + low Swiss inflation reinforce strength.
- Upcoming Events (Dec 29): No high-impact red news—post-holiday thin liquidity; year-end repositioning possible. Expected reaction: Low vol, range-bound with potential risk-off tilt (bearish USD/CHF).
Overall Market Bias and Trading Ideas ⚖️ Synthesize: Bearish HTF bias (structure breaks + narrowing differentials + retail long extremes + institutional targets = contrarian short asymmetry). Fundamentals favor CHF into 2026, but thin vol risks shallow bounces/noise.
Potential Setups (H4/Daily Only):
- A-Setup (Liquidity Sweep → BOS → Reclaim): Sweep above 0.7950–0.7970 → clean retest → short targeting 0.7850–0.7800 (RR 1:6+). Stop above recent high.
- Risk: Holiday fakeouts; never force—wait London/NY for clean confirmation.
- Fade retail longs if structure aligns; small risk on chop, perfection on liquidity events.
Calm execution—let the market deliver. Asymmetry in patient bears here.