EUR/USD Daily Edge Report – December 23, 2025
📊 Pair: EUR/USD 📅 Date: December 23, 2025
Current Price and Trend Snapshot 📈
- Current Level: ~1.1775–1.1780
- Recent Move: Mild upside (+0.15–0.50% recently), recovering from dips near 1.1700–1.1720; snapped short-term slides on USD softness.
- Key Support/Resistance:
- Support: 1.1700 (psychological/held level), 1.1650–1.1670
- Resistance: 1.1800 (key psychological barrier), 1.1850–1.1870
- Overall Technical Trend: Daily/Weekly bias bullish (Strong Buy signals on MAs/indicators); higher highs/lows in channel, HTF uptrend intact despite late-2025 consolidation. Calm December ranges expected.
Technical Analysis Overview 🔍
- Major Levels: Bullish channel defended; POC ~1.1650–1.1700 as base. Trendline support ~1.1530 (longer-term).
- Potential Setups:
- Setup #1 (Liquidity Sweep → BOS → Reclaim): Watching for sweep below 1.1700 then reclaim for bullish continuation (A setup if RR >1:5).
- Setup #2 (Compression → Expansion): Coiling near 1.1800 resistance – coiled breakout potential upside if cleared.
- Setup #3 (Extreme Mean Reversion): Not triggered; recent 20-day ADR ~70–90 pips (low volatility, no 2–3x extremes).
- Clean structure favors buyers on H4/Daily; wait for London/NY volatility.
| Level Type | Price | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Resistance | 1.1800 | Psychological + prior highs |
| Resistance | 1.1850 | Extension target |
| Support | 1.1700 | Key hold + channel base |
| Support | 1.1650 | Deeper imbalance |
Retail Sentiment from Twitter/X and Social Media 🐑 Recent X discussions mixed but leaning bearish short-term (fading rallies, order blocks, internal structure downsides) with some bullish on dips (demand zones, buyside liquidity). Traders debating rejection at 1.1800 vs. channel defense. Crowds often wrong – contrarian edge if extremes hit.
Retail Sentiment from Sources 📉
- Data limited/unavailable today (holiday proximity); historically, retail often heavily long EUR at highs (fade potential). No current extremes reported from Myfxbook/OANDA/IG/FXSSI – assume neutral/moderately long retail (typical contrarian bearish implication if technicals align lower).
Professional/Institutional Sentiment 🏦
- Bloomberg/FXStreet/Traders: Mixed; some bearish longer-term (parity risks if USD exceptionalism returns), but near-term USD weakness supports EUR.
- Bank Reports (JPM/Goldman): Moderately bullish EUR into 1.19–1.22 by mid-2026; fading US exceptionalism, policy uncertainty. Overall institutional bias mildly bullish EUR on divergence.
Most Recent COT Report 📑
- Latest: As of early December 2025 (delayed releases noted).
- Speculators (non-commercial): Building net-longs on EUR (bullish implication as positions increase).
- Changes: Rising longs/falling shorts in recent weeks → supportive for EUR strength.
- Implications: Specs betting on EUR upside vs. USD; aligns with contrarian fade if retail opposes.
Fundamental Drivers 🌍
- Key Themes: Fed-ECB divergence narrowing (Fed cuts vs. ECB hold); USD weakness on softer data/inflation, Euro resilience on stable growth/inflation near target. Yield spreads favor USD less now.
- Upcoming Events (Dec 23): High-impact USD data – CB Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales, Richmond Manufacturing, Durable Goods/GDP prelims. Expected mixed; softer reads → USD weak (EUR bullish reaction); stronger → USD rebound. Risk-off if data surprises hawkish.
Overall Market Bias and Trading Ideas ⚖️
- Synthesized Bias: Mildly Bullish (HTF structure + institutional/spec positioning); neutral short-term on low volatility/holidays. Fade retail if crowded long on dips.
- Potential Setups (H4/Daily only):
- Preferred: Bullish Reclaim (Setup #1) – Wait for dip to 1.1700 liquidity sweep, BOS higher, reclaim OB. Entry ~1.1720–1.1750; Stop below 1.1680; Targets 1.1800 (1:3 RR), 1.1850+ (1:5+ A+ if perfect). Risk small – asymmetry key.
- Risk: Breakdown below 1.1700 → bearish to 1.1650 (monitor for Setup #3 reversion).
- No force; market must come to us. Today risk-off potential on USD data.
Stay calm, objective – high-probability only. Liquidity + structure edge.